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Like Nostradamus, I saw today (3)



Like Nostradamus, I saw today (3)


This week, we shall continue with our constitutional, legal and political analysis of the political rumble in the legislative jungle of the 8th National Assembly. Continuing with the factors that threw up Saraki and Dogara, which we started last week.



“The APC even, harbor some entrenched caucuses within its fold. The defunct ACN led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, CPC led by Buhari, ANPP directed by Ogbonayo Onu, and a splinter group of APGA, led by Governor Rochas Okoracha of Imo State, pioneered this amourpous party. They were later joined by some very angry and frustrated PDP elements, who rebelled against the status quo that had denied them the joy of internal democracy within the then ruling PDP. This breakaway faction, otherwise called the “new PDP”, led by Abubakar Kawu Baraje, had powerful and influential Governors like Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Rabiu Kwankwanso (Kano), and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara). They came in to APC with their full arsenal of structures, supporters, hangers-on, opportunists, patriots, visions, missions, deep purses, organograms, influence, reach and goals. The cake was generously iced with the poaching of maverick and former Vice President, political titan, Atiku Abubakar, described by the BBC analyst, Aliyu Tanko, as the biggest catch of them all. The stage was therefore set for ego display and supremacy test. To be or not to be, became the question. The chicken and the egg, which came first, became the puzzle.

It was only a matter of time before these deep internal contradictions sign-posted by a marriage of strange bedfellows and birds of different plummages, ato manifest and boil over. It will require careful political engineering, maturity, patience, forbearance, self-denial and interment of personal ambitions, before APC can settle down and match the cohesiveness and homogeneity of the PDP that managed to hold on to power for 16 years. Remember they have beaten their chest and boasted they would rule Nigeria for 60 years. The arrogance of power and internal schisms, and perhaps, “deux ex machina”, prevented this sit-tightism and imperial disposition.



Another factor that threw up Saraki and Dogora is that some members of the APC deeply resent what they regard as “Tinubuasation” of APC. They argue that the “Lion of Bourdillion” (give him some credit and thumbs up for cobbling together these disparate groups), having pocketed the governors of Lagos, Osun, Oyo and Ogun States, thrown up the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, (SAN), and having also thrown up Chief John Odigie – Oyegun, as Chairman of APC, forcing Tom Ikimi’s angry exit, cannot again be allowed to quarantine off the 3rd and 4th positions in Nigeria. There was therefore an obvious gang up to decapitate his rising (some say, very overbearing), influence.”

“On 12th July, 2015, I concluded my write-up on the above topic.




There is the other factor that threw up Saraki and Dogara in the interestingly by–partisan National Assembly. The fatalistic natural apothegm that what goes around comes around- a simple restatement of the Law of Karma, or just deserts – appears to have reared its ugly head.

In 2011, the PDP had thrown up Mrs. Adeola Akande, to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. But, majority of members, spear headed mostly by the then ACN (now of APC), put spanners in the smooth moving wheels of PDP’s desire. They conspired with each other and elected Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and Emeka Ihedioha as Speaker and Deputy Speaker, respectively. PDP grieved and belly–ached, while ACN, APGA, CPC and ANPP, guffawed, back slapped and mocked PDP. The “Tambuwalisation” of the House of Representatives, was to boomerang in double measure, on the same ACN–APC, which now suddenly described such rebellious antics as not only inimical to party discipline and cohesion, but also treacherous and perfidious. Really? Was the APC, a major beneficiary of the 2011 Tambuwalisation of the National Assembly really serious about this political volte-face?



Let it be noted, for the records, that much of the present near mortal injuries bedeviling the APC party are self-inflicted. APC must be very careful not to self-destruct or self-immolate. The collateral damage will inexorably ricochet to Nigeria and her hapless citizens. They must realize that at the Senate, it has a very uncomfortable slim majority of 10 Senators (59) over PDP (49). This means that it must, whether it likes it or not, sleep on the same political bed with PDP to actualize its “change” mantra. What is more, neither Saraki nor Dogara can be wishfully removed by a wave of the hand, as they require a humongous two third majority votes of members of each House to do so (Section 50 (2) (c) of the 1999 Constitution). Let me emphasize that the APC can never achieve this, as its legislators are equally divided along the two lines of “Like Minds” and “Unity Forum”. Aside this, they will require the unrealizable two-third majority votes (74 for Senate and 240 for the House of Representative), to remove these principal officers. I do not see how PDP will gratuitously lend APC 15 Senators and over 100 Honourable members to impeach Saraki and Dogara, whose umbilical cords still remain firmly and tightly tied to the PDP, the mother party, from which they had defected to the APC, same years ago. Surely, a fruit does not fall far away from the mother tree.

The APC is currently boiling over. Its admirers are getting worried and ashamed of its inability to put its house in order. But, can APC really, when inspite of its pretensions that PMB is the “unquestionable National Leader” of the APC (Garba Shehu, SSA, Media and Publicity to PMB), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu looms large as the “National Leader” of the party?

It is clearly a case of two captains in a boat. It will rock and capsize. That the APC has lost its moral compass and regimentalising leadership influence on its representatives, played out with more force on Thursday, 26th July, 2015, when both the Senate and the House engaged themselves in a scandalous show of shame over leadership positions, not about re-engineering comatose Nigeria. In the House, the Chambers was turned into an uproarious maelstrom, with screams, insults, abuses, expletives, curses, pushing, shoving, pugilism, and even an attempt to seize the carefully quarantined golden mace. A cordon had to be thrown around Speaker Yakubu Dogara, whose only “crime” is that he emerged popularly (as Speaker), from amongst his peers, in accordance with S.50 of the 1999 Constitution.

The entire brouhaha was again caused by the vain attempt of APC to externally impose leaders on both Houses in the name of party supremacy. In a letter written by its Chairman, Chief John Odigie – Oyegun, on the 23rd of June, 2015, the APC (which for years had mocked the PDP for lacking internal democracy), directed Speaker Dogara to appoint Femi Gbajabiamila (SW), (defeated earlier for speakership by Dogara), as House Leader; Alhasan Ado Doguwa (NW) as Deputy House Leader; Pally Iriase (SS), as Deputy Chief Whip; and Mohammed Monguno (NE), who had been defeated for the position of Deputy Speaker by Yusuf Suleiman Lasun of South West, and of the Dogara persuasion, as Deputy Chief Whip. All hell was let loose when the “Pro-Party Supremacists” battled with the “Legislative Supremacists” for the heart and soul of the House.

At the Senate, more maturity prevailed, with the political sagacity of Bukola Saraki, who exhibited imperious Machiavellian traits to hold firmly to legislative supremacy. He navigated ingeniously, like Mungo Park, Lander Brothers, Clapperton and Vasco Dagama, through sharks-infested ocean of turbulence and chaos, to manage the volcanic eruption.” To be concluded next week.



“Leadership is practiced not so much in words as in attitude and in actions.” (Harold S. Geneen).



Nigerians, please continue to engage me in the national conversation, whilst awaiting explosive topic of Sunday Sermon on the Mount of the Nigerian Project by Chief Mike Ozekhome, SAN, OFR, FCIArb., Ph.D, LL.D.

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