Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 presidential election, a recent opinion poll has revealed that Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is ahead of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in what appears to be a substantially close threehorse race. Trailing behind the trio is Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) who appears to be the lone outsider or “dark horse” in the race. All other contestants polled results that were statistically insignificant.
The poll, commissioned by ANAP Foundation and conducted nationwide by NOI Polls Limited, was concluded early this month. The basic poll question was: “Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?” The results showed a significant lead for Obi with 21 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today and 13 per cent each proposing to vote for Tinubu and Atiku.
Kwankwaso placed a distant fourth with three per cent of voters proposing to vote for him. Although Obi’s eight per cent lead at this early stage is significant, it is not sufficient to separate him completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21 per cent, 13 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39 per cent of women are undecided versus 27 per cent of male voters. T he percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the zones – 99 per cent in the North East, 90 per cent in the South South, the North Central and the North West respectively. The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South East with 88 per cent and the South West with 85 per cent.
Furthermore, the data summarizes top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: The need to tackle insecurity (45 per cent), the Economy (20 per cent), Education (9 per cent), Unemployment (7 per cent) and Poverty alleviation (4 per cent).
