New Telegraph

2023: Southern govs step to the forefront

 

FELIX NWANERI reports on the jostle for the 2023 presidency by the various geographical blocs across the country and how the demand by the Southern Governors’ Forum that the next president must come from their region has rekindled the age-long rivalry between the North and South

 

 

Less than two years to the next general election, Nigeria’s political landscape is agog with permutations, especially, as to which region between the North and South that will produce the country’s next president.

 

The incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari, is expected to bow out on May 29, 2023, after serving out the constitutionally allowed two terms.

 

But ahead of the February 18, 2023 poll that will see the emergence of his successor, it is a fierce debate over where power should shift to. Geopolitical zones and even names of some personalities are presently being touted.

 

On paper, power is expected to shift to the southern part of the country given the zoning arrangement between Nigeria’s two geographical divides – North and South, which took effect from 1999.

 

However, there are indications that zoning or power shift is likely to be discarded this time if emerging developments in the polity are anything to go by. Perhaps, the zoning debate, explains why the two leading political parties have refrained from declaring which of the country’s political divides (North or South) will get their respective tickets for the 2023 election as well as the waitinggame been played by the various presidential hopefuls.

 

The belief before now was that the PDP is likely to zone its presidential ticket to the North given the body language of the party’s leadership.

 

This conviction is despite the insistence by most southern leaders that anything short of the presidency in 2023 would not be acceptable. It has been argued in some quarters that since the last president produced by the PDP (Jonathan), is from the South, it would be wise for the party to zone its ticket for the 2023 presidential election to the North in line with the party’s zoning arrangement.

 

For the APC, which has no formal zoning arrangement, the belief is that the leadership of the party will give the South the 2023 presidential ticket given that the North would have spent eight years in power through President Buhari by 2023.

 

But politics is a game of the possible in which nothing is foreclosed, most analysts believe that the chances of the South getting the presidential tickets of any of the two major parties hangs in the balance. Reasons for this are not farfetched.

 

The North, for instance, seems not disposed to relinquish power after Buhari as some political leaders from the region are canvassing the need for their area to hold on to power, at least, for another four years, so that the region will be at par with the South.

 

The present democratic dispensation is 22 years old and the power rotation arrangement, though not constitutional, has seen the South had the presidency for 13 years through Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West, 1999-2007) and Goodluck Jonathan (South-South, 2010-2015), while the North would have been in power for 11 years by the time Buhari completes his second term in 2023 (2015-2023) as Umaru Yaar’Adua, who succeeded Obasanjo in 2007, passed on barely three years in office.

 

The plot by the North started like a joke immediately after Buhari was reelected for a second term in 2019, but later gained the support of most northern political elites, who made a case for the abandonment of the zoning arrangement, not only for the Office of President, but for other political offices as currently obtainable in the country.

 

But most political leaders in the South maintained that jettisoning of rotational presidency at this point in Nigeria’s history will not in the interest of the country.

 

According to them, Nigeria’s unity is presently under threat over rising insecurity, so abolishing zoning might lead to crisis, which may aggravate the issues on ground.

 

The zoning debate was still raging, when what seemed a detour by the North emerged. Interestingly, it came from one of the governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir el-Rufai. He said the presidency should return to the South after Buhari’s tenure in conformity with the zonal arrangement embraced by the major political parties.

 

His words: “The general political consensus in Nigeria is that the presidency should rotate between the North and South. It is not written, but everyone understands it.

 

In some of the parties, like the PDP, it is even written down in their constitution, but it was breached in 2015. “I think that every politician of honour should understand and abide by that consensus except there is an extenuating circumstance compelling it to be set aside. What could this be?

 

President Yar’Adua died in office and it was compulsory for Jonathan to continue, but when 2011 election came, there were many people who insisted that Jonathan should step aside for a northerner to complete the tenure of Yar’Adua, but I opposed it because I didn’t think it was proper for an incumbent that got there not by his own design to be stopped from contesting when the constitution has not barred him from running.

 

“In the APC, we deliberately omitted rotational presidency in our constitution and the emergence of a presidential candidate does not take into account zoning and that was why  in 2015, Rochas Okorocha from the South-East contested, Sam Nda-Isaiah contested,

 

Buhari, Kwankwaso and others contested. I can say that as distinct from the PDP, APC has no rotational presidency but candidates are selected strictly on the basis of political merit and the general acceptability of the candidate. “I want to say that those of us from Northern Nigeria honour agreements.

We do not violate unwritten political agreements and I will be the last person to lead in violating that agreement. I may have a personal view, but that should be the basis. I don’t care where you come from but I look for merit.

 

“But as a group, the northern APC will have to sit down and endorse someone, most likely someone from the South, because after eight years of Buhari, I don’t think the presidency should remain in the North unless there is some extenuating circumstances. But all things being equal, we will honour our agreement and we keep our words.”

 

Many, who suspected el-Rufai’s detour at that time, opined that the South should not take his position for its face value given that it has so far been a mind game over the 2023 presidential race.

 

They further advanced that given the dynamics of politics; only political neophytes would wish away the plot by the North. The pundits viewed the postulations by the northern political leaders as subtle moves aimed at discarding the zoning arrangement, which undoubtedly favours the South in 2023.

 

Perhaps, the haze over power shift, explains the mind game being played by some chieftains of the ruling APC and main opposition PDP, who are said to have interest in contesting the 2023 presidential election.

 

Refutations have continued to trail ambitions of these gladiators. Rather than declare their respective interests, most them have only resorted to testing the political waters ahead of the 2023 presidential election with campaign posters emanating from their supporters.

 

The various support groups have through the channel announced the presidential ambitions of a former governor of Lagos State Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; Kaduna State governor, Nasir el- Rufai; Ekiti State governor, Kayode Fayemi, former Zamfara State governor, Senator Sani Yerima, ex-governor of Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and lately, Governors Dave Umahi (Ebonyi), Yahaya Bello (Kogi) as well as the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi and Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, among others within the APC fold.

Similarly, such campaign posters have hinted on the aspirations of former Vice President Atiku; former Governors Peter Obi (Anambra) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano) as well as Governors Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto) and Nyesom Wike (Rivers), all on the platform of the PDP.

 

But as the waiting game continues, some analysts, who reviewed build-ups to previous presidential polls, are of the view that there is nothing wrong with individuals with presidential ambitions declaring such two years ahead of the poll, especially when some governorship hopefuls in the states have starting announcing theirs.

 

They, however, said that given the peculiarity of the race to Nigeria’s presidency, early birds, particularly those without deep pockets are likely to run out of steam before the main contest begins.

 

 

Southern governors step to the forefront

 

While it might be too early to draw conclusions on where the pendulum would swing to as regards the presidential tickets of the two leading parties, some analysts, who weighed the options on ground, were of the view that the best any of the two leading parties is likely to offer the South is a vice presidential ticket.

 

The questions many have asked against this backdrop are: Will the South accept to produce running mates to presidential candidates of northern extraction in 2023, and can the region afford to wait for another four or eight years before taking a shot at the presidency?

 

Although most southern political leaders have maintained that there is no going back to zoning, the declaration by the governors of the 17 states of the region, under the aegis of Southern Governors’ Forum (SGF) on Monday last week, has not only added more weight to the clamour, but rekindled the age-long rivalry between the North and South.

 

The governors, who met at the Lagos State government house, Alausa, Ikeja, demanded that the next president of Nigeria must come from the region on the basis of politics of equity and fairness. They also insisted that the presidency be rotated between the North and South.

 

At the meeting were the host governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu; Ifeanyi Okowa (Delta), Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (Ondo), Gboyega Oyetola (Osun), Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom), Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu).

 

 

The governors of Edo, Imo, Abia and Ebonyi states, Godwin Obaseki, Hope Uzodinma, Okezie Ikpeazu and Dave Umahi, were represented by their deputies – Philip Shuaibu, Placid Njoku, Oko Chukwu and Kelechi Igwe, respectively. The governors of Cross River and Anambra states, Ben Ayade and Willie Obiano were absent from the meeting and did not send representatives.

 

In a communiqué read by Governor Akeredolu, the governors declared: “The Forum reiterates its commitment to the politics of equity, fairness and unanimously agrees that the presidency of Nigeria be rotated between Southern and Northern Nigeria and resolved that the next president of Nigeria should emerge from the Southern Region.”

 

The southern governors, who also stressed the need to consolidate the nation’s democracy, rejected the removal of electronic transmission of election results from the Electoral Act as well as condemned the confirmation of exclusive jurisdiction in preelection matters on the Federal High Court. On security, the forum said it reviewed the situation in the country and re-emphasised the need for state police.

 

They also resolved that if for any reason, security institutions need to undertake an operation in any state, the chief security officer of the state must be duly informed.

 

The governors announced September 1 timeline for the promulgation of the anti-open grazing law in all member states, while resolving that funds deducted from the Federation Account for the Nigeria Police Security Trust Fund should be distributed among the states and Federal Government to combat security challenges.

North warns against intimidation

 

In a swift reaction to the demand that power shifts to the South in 2023, pan Northern group, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), said the position of the southern governors is unconstitutional as only political parties are empowered by law to sponsor candidates for elections.

 

ACF spokesperson, Emmanuel Yawe, who told New Telegraph on phone last night that the group cannot decide for the political parties where to pick their respective candidates for the 2023 presidential election, said it is only when political parties choose their candidates either from the South or North that they will interact with the candidates to know their plans for the North and decide who to support or not.

 

“We don’t delve into such things; these are political issues that are resolved by political parties. You know what the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria says; only political parties can sponsor candidates.

 

“We are not a political party, so we cannot say every political party must field a candidate from the South or from the North. When political parties pick their candidates, irrespective of where the candidates come from, either from the South or from the North, we will then interact with the candidates and find out what plans they have for the North.

 

“But it would be unconstitutional if we should say a political party must present its candidates from either the South or North. That is not our business. The constitution says it is the business of the political parties,” Yawe said. Another pro-North group, Northern Elders Forum (NEF) also rejected the position of the southern governors, saying the presidency is a democratic office and not a rotational position.

 

NEF, through its spokesperson, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, maintained that the North would not be threatened, intimidated or blackmailed into giving up its  right to a democratic office.

 

“NEF sees the decision of the southern governors as an expression of sentiment that could be best discussed within a political process. We are running a democratic government and decisions over where the next president comes from are basically decisions that will be made by voters exercising their rights to choose which candidate best serves their interest,” Baba-Ahmed said in a statement.

 

He advised that since the southern governors were elected on both the platform of APC and PDP, what they should do is to convince the two dominant parties to zone their respective tickets to the South and then work to convince Nigerians from all parts of the country to vote for such candidates. Baba-Ahmed noted the democratic rights of Nigerian citizens to vote for a candidate cannot be snatched by threats or intimidation.

 

He added that politicians were becoming very lazy to think they will be given leadership in a manner that suggests an ultimatum. Besides ACF and NEF, other pro northern groups have risen in unison to fault the Southern Governors’ Forum. Among the groups are Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG) and Arewa Youths Forum (AYF).

 

The deafening voice of opposition against power shift, notwithstanding, some political leaders from the region are of the view that there is substance in the position of the southern governors.

 

Borno State governor, Babagana Zulum, for instance, threw his weight behind the southern governors although with a caveat – resort to threat to avoid heating up the polity. His words: “I have said it times without number that I, Prof. Babagana Zulum, I am of the view that the presidency should go to the South in the year 2023 because the unity of our country is very important.

 

“Secondly, inclusivity is very important. Thirdly, I am in the APC. Six or seven years ago, APC had zoned the presidency to Northern Nigeria based on the agreement that in the year 2023, the presidency should go to the South.” “But again, this is politics. We are supposed to meet and discuss this issue among ourselves, among the political class.

 

This statement that people are making that the presidency must go to the South, I want them to remove the word ‘must.’” Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom, who also threw his weight behind the southern governors, particularly, the plan to legislate on the prohibition of open grazing, described it as a bold and patriotic move that will bring to an end the lingering crisis caused by armed herdsmen.

 

Ortom also praised the southern governors’ position on power shift. He said “only equity, fairness and justice can strengthen Nigeria’s unity, give all citizens a sense of belonging and reduce tension.”

 

Kindred spirit for southern govs

 

As expected, the position of the southern governors was backed by nationality groups in the South. Among the groups include Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo and Pan Niger Delta Forum (PNDF). Afenifere, through its National Publicity Secretary, Jare Ajayi, said since the North would have ruled consecutively for eight years by 2023, the next president should come from the South.

 

“To us in Afenifere, the political parties should ensure that their presidential candidates are picked from the South.

 

But beyond the issue of where the next president comes from, it must be a condition that restructuring takes place before the next elections in Nigeria, there must be restructuring that encapsulates true federalism and confers the leverage for selfdetermination on the constituent components of Nigeria.”

 

Ohanaeze Ndigbo, which also backed the position, however appealed to the governors to move a step further by conceding the presidency to the South-East in the spirit of justice, equity and fairness.

 

Spokesperson of the apex Igbo body, Chief Alex Ogbonnia, said: “The outcome of the southern governors meeting in Lagos is a welcome development because the issue of the presidency moving to the South-East should be non-negotiable. This was part of the gentleman agreement reached between northern and southern leaders in 1998 to the effect that the presidency should alternate between the North and South.

 

“The South-West have had their full share through President Olusegun Obasanjo, while the South- South have equally had their share through President Goodluck Jonathan. It is therefore the turn of the South East. The governors should therefore be magnanimous enough to reciprocate the kindness of the people of the South-East by boldly declaring that 2023 is for the South- East.”

 

PANDEF, on its part, commended the southern governors for meeting again after their historic Asaba meeting to further accentuate the wishes and aspirations of the people of Southern Nigeria.

 

The group’s spokesman, Ken Robinson, said the governors have added their voice to a critical matter, given the irrational proposals by some mischievous persons that the presidency should be open to all zones of the country in 2023. Besides the nationality groups, the governors also have the support of senators of southern extraction, who described their position as the best political arrangement that can unify the country and correct the fault lines.

 

The senators under the aegis of Southern Senators’ Forum, opined that allowing the presidency to rotate between the North and the South will naturally quell the secession agitations being propelled by some individuals and groups.

 

A statement, signed by the forum’s chairman, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, read in part: “As much as we believe that competence and not regionalism should be the watchword in who becomes the president of any nation, we need to also be circumspect of our ethnic and political pluralities and think of the best way to further unite us.

 

“The events of the recent times where insecurity, secession agitations and others have further divided us and become one reality staring all of us in the face, we need to ruminate on how best to resolve these crises in the interest of our nation.

 

“Nigeria has never been this divided and the current parlous situation that has pushed our country to the verge of collapse necessitated the governors’ decisions and it shouldn’t be seen from the narrow spectrum that they were stoking the fire of disunity or promoting regionalism or ethnicity.

 

“Rotational [residency will resolve most of the political problems and will naturally ward off secession agenda being promoted by some individuals and groups.” Beyond demand for power While it has been exchange of brickbats between the North and South over the position of the southern governors on power shift, analysts are of the view that the quest for Buhari’s successor to come from the South should not stop at a mere demand.

Those who hold this view charged the governors to take the battle further to the respective parties by insisting that their respective presidential tickets should be zoned to the South if the demand is to be actualized. Reference was made to the 1999 elections, when the PDP and the defunct APP fielded two southerners, Chief Olusegun and Chief Olu Falae as well as during the 2019 general election, when APC and PDP fielded two northerners,

Buhari and Atiku. Also advocated was negotiation and consensus-seeking among the various sections of the country as a southern president cannot emerge without substantial support from the North just as Buhari would not have won the 2015 presidential election if he did not received support from the South, particularly, the South-West.

 

Those who stressed the need for negotiation and consensus as Governor Zulum pointed out, said there are indications that some political leaders in the North are likely to convince their people to back down from the 2023 presidency and support the South as long as whoever emerges as the next president will ensure protection of interest of their region post-2023.

 

New Telegraph had recently reported that there are indications that the North is planning to foist its preferred presidential candidates of southern extraction on the two main political parties if the region’s bid to retain power beyond 2023 fails.

 

The paper also gathered then that to actualise the plan, some northern political leaders have already been constituted into think tanks to shop for what was described as “credible candidates” from both the ruling APC and PDP.

 

A source, who was privy to the plan told our correspondent then that the plot is part of North’s strategy to ensure that it decides whoever succeeds President Buhari, whether a northerner or southerner as what the North wants in 2023 is a win-win situation.

 

The source also disclosed then that decision makers in the North are already looking at some politicians of southern extraction as possible presidential candidates, who, they will in turn extract commitments from to ensure protection of the region’s interest after Buhari.

 

No doubt, the recent unity of the southern governors is virtually unprecedented in Nigerian history as there had never been a time that southern political leaders jettisoned political and ethnic differences to speak with a strong voice on topical national issues, but the unanimity with which they spoke on the 2023 presidency and the torrent of reactions from northern political leaders over their position that Nigeria’s next president must come from the South, definitely speak volume of the uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming general election.

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