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Analysts: Inflation moderation cuts chances of immediate hike

As members of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gear up for their meeting next Monday and Tuesday, analysts at CardinalStone Research have said that the unexpected decline in April 2021 inflation has reduced the chances of the committee voting for an increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR). Commenting on the April 2021 inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, which showed that headline inflation retreated for the first time in 19 months to 18.12per cent in April from 18.17per cent recorded in March, the analysts also stated that the argument for an immediate rate hike had been weakened by factors, such as the Federal Government’s plans to issue a Eurobond this year, recovery in crude oil prices, increased inflow of remittances and expectations that the CBN will soon unify the official market and Investors and Exporters’ (I&E) FX rates. As the analysts put it, “we believe the halt in inflation provides a hitherto muted argument for advocates of dovish monetary policy ahead of next week’s policy meeting. In the previous two policy meetings, the doves have accumulated 100 per cent (January) and 67 per cent (March) of total votes to ensure that previously instituted stimulatory monetary measures remain in place.

 

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