Analysts project 18.77% inflation rate for April

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate may likely increase to 18.77 per cent in April from 18.17 per cent in March 2021, analysts at Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) have said. The analysts, who made the prediction in a report obtained by New Telegraph yesterday, noted that if their forecast for inflation in April comes to pass, it would be the 20th consecutive monthly increase and the highest level of inflation in over 10 years. According to the analysts, the surge in inflation is driven by exchange rate pass through effect as well as the increase in the price of domestic commodities due to food shortages occasioned by insecurity in the country’s food belt.

The analysts stated: “The April inflation numbers would be released by NBS on May 17 and we are projecting a further spike by 0.6 per cent to 18.77 per cent from 18.17 per cent in March. This would be the 20th consecutive monthly increase and the highest level of inflation in over a decade. “The food and core subindexes are estimated to increase to 24 per cent and 12.9 per cent respectively.

The upward trend would be largely driven by insecurity in the food belt that is inducing food shortages and in turn increasing the price of domestic commodities. In April alone, there were about 400 killings by bandits, Boko Haram, herdsmen and unknown gunmen. “The rise in inflation would also be exacerbated by the exchange rate pass through effect as restrictions to food imports linger. The immediate impact would be a further squeeze to consumer disposable income and a decline in aggregate demand. The EIU projects aggregate private consumption to fall by 2.7 per cent to $337 billion in 2021 from $346.4 billion in 2020. In addition, this alongside the outcome of the Q1’21 GDP figures to be released on May 24 would be major considerations for the MPC at its next meeting (24/25).”




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