Analysts project more revenue for FG in Q3

As reactions continue to trail the latest fiscal revenue data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Value Added Tax (VAT) and Company Income Tax (CIT) collected by the Federal Government, which showed improved collections in Q2’21 compared to Q1 2021 and Q2’20, analysts at Cowry Asset Management Ltd have predicted that government will collect even more revenue in Q3’21.

In a report obtained by New Telegraph on Monday, the analysts said their prediction is hinged on the expectation that the Nigerian economy would continue to gain strength. As the analysts put it, “although low base effect may have partly contributed to the jump in Federal Government tax collections in Q2’21, even as the economic impact of COVID-19 was more intense in Q2’20, the country has also witnessed an improvement in economic activities. “Anecdotal evidence as well as recent July Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data suggests that the economy is gaining strength and this should translate to more revenues to the government in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, we expect output growth to come in relatively higher in Q2 2021.” According to the NBS report, while VAT collected rose quarter-on-quarter by 3.20 per cent (and 56.56 per cent y-o-y) to N512.25 billion, CIT increased q-o-q by 20.23 per cent (and 17.42 per cent y-o-y) to N472.07 billion. Thus, the total income from VAT and CIT stood at N984.32 billion, increasing by 10.72 per cent q-o-q. New Telegraph reports that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), last month, retained its 2.5 per cent projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2021. The Fund, however, upgraded its projection for the country’s economic growth in 2022 to 2.6 per cent.

This represents a three basis point upgrade from the 2.3 per cent that the IMF projected in its WEO in April. Retaining its forecast for the sub-Saharan economic region for 2021 and 2022 at 3.4 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively,IMF said: “The 2021 forecast for sub-Saharan Africa is unchanged relative to the April WEO, with an upgrade for South Africa following a strong positive surprise in the first quarter offset by downward revisions in other countries. The worsening pandemic developments in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to weigh on the region’s recovery.”




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