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Can Tinubu intimidate Buhari twice?

Telling the truth to yourself is Integrity; Telling the truth to others is Honesty; Telling the truth with no fear or intimidation is Bravery and being free from falsehood is Purity! –– Israelmore Ayivor

Brazilian novelist Paulo Coelho probably had in mind the likes of Bola Tinubu with these words, “If you want to control someone, all you have to do is to make them feel afraid.” The ruling party’s presidential standard bearer Bola Tinubu is certainly aiming to overawe President Muhammedu Buhari twice and make him afraid of the consequences of not supporting his self-entitlement to the presidency of Nigeria.

Yes, twice because he did it the first time and got away with it and that gave him the audacity to try it again. It’s now able to be relied on to happen that each time Tinubu speaks from Abeokuta, the people should expect a dig on President Buhari. The last time Tinubu was in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, was June 20022 during his meet the delegates ahead of the presidential primaries. It was then he made the famous or notorious “emi lokan” remarks which were an added-on speech to some reminders to President Buhari not to forget how he became president in 2015 with the help of people like Tinubu.

Speaking last June in Abeokuta in the indigenous Yoruba language on reasons why the delegates should support his ambition, Tinubu told them how he had supported so many people including President Muhammadu Buhari to achieve their political ambitions. He added that he nominated Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and supported the Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun, noting that it’s time for people to support his dream of becoming the President of Nigeria. He rounded it up by declaring unequivocally that it was now his turn and made it clear to those he had been supporting that payback time was around the corner. The media quickly interpreted the statement as intimidation and undue pressure on all his beneficiaries to return his kindness. The All Progressives Congress did not like the outburst, especially as it relates to the president.

Even the presidency reacted by saying that President Buhari came to power through Allah’s grace, using multiple persons and groups and never only one person. To avert a backlash that was building up then, Tinubu swiftly reacted, trying to douse tension by blaming what he called misinterpretation on political opponents and the media. In a statement, he said, “Instead of weighing what I said carefully, they translated so quickly and thus inaccurately in an attempt to meet media deadlines. “Of course, there are also those who knew better but they conveyed these inaccuracies because the sensationalism suits their political purposes.

“Let me also erase any doubts. My respect and regard for President Buhari as Commander-in-chief [is] high and unfailing. I shall never denigrate him. I certainly did not do so in Abeokuta. We have been political partners for a long time and I hope that partnership continues well into the future. I would do nothing to jeopardize it.” Despite those remorseful words, the message had gone out not as a negotiating offer, not a plea for support or for bargains but an unmistakable gauntlet being thrown out for a duel. When the duel eventually came Tinubu emerged victorious ahead of all his beneficiaries who failed to heed his call, including obviously President Buhari whose body language never wished for what he got . That night, President Buhari was a pitiable sight to behold at Eagle Square as it was clear that he had been outsmarted by a master of the game. When Tinubu was making his post-victory speech at the square he did not fail to heap further dig when he said as a way of apology to the President who sat all night that he should wait because others also waited for him.

It was therefore against the backdrop of the above narratives that the recent outburst of Tinubu in the same Abeokuta is generating all the interest as political analysts see it as more than just a happenstance and a continuation of the June tirade on Buhari. Even if the use of Abeokuta to always hit at Buhari is accidental, the content of the statement doesn’t seem so. Last June when he fired the first shot, it was at the peak of a grand design being hatched around the President by the Aso Rock Villa cabal to stop him. In frustration with watching himself lose out, Tinubu amidst his people delivered his emotionladen message in Yoruba.

Having scaled through after the outburst and the hullabaloo that followed it and with the gang-up mounting again, Tinubu found it necessary and timely to pass the road that was smooth to victory last time. Again this time, the rumour was thickening of a gang-up against Tinubu by APC governors in the North, plus the president’s apparent indifference to the candidacy of anybody. Controversial elder statesman Tanko Yakassai who had declared support for Tinubu ignited the fire when he declared in a way that leaves no doubt that President Buhari was not supporting his party candidate for the President. “What I realise is that I’m not sure if Buhari is happy with the candidature of Tinubu. That is the issue. He is the APC because he is the President elected on the platform of the APC but is he committed to Tinubu’s presidency? I have my doubt,” Yakassai declared.

The presidency through Garba Shehu quickly denounced Yakassai’s statement as baseless pointing at the President’s attendance at Tinubu’s rallies. But not convinced by the Shehu,’s denial, coupled with that from his Campaign Director-General, Governor Simon Lalong, that all the APC governors are behind their candidate, Tinubu returned to Abeokuta to again cry out alerting his people of a grand design by people he called “powers up there” to stop him from taking power.

He alleged that the current fuel scarcity in the country and the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to redesign the Naira, were contrived to sabotage his victory at next month’s election. Again when the media and the discerning public rightly interpreted this as another flare-up against the President who is at the head of the powers-that-be, Tinubu as he did in June 2022 blamed opponents and the media for trying to erect a bridge between him and Buhari. He even had to lead some APC governors to Daura to again explain himself.

Unfortunately for him, he would not know if his explanation was accepted until February 25, after the election. But some analysts are seeing both Tinubu and the President involved in a hide-and-seek game. Tinubu having gotten away with the first intimidation felt the road first followed that led to success should be repeated while the president, on the other hand, appears to be saying once beaten twice shy.

You got away first, not again. The president’s seeming position appears to be underscored by the baggage around Tinubu which he will not be able to defend if he hands over power to him. The president’s insistence that the people should vote for credible people and that his regime will not allow anybody to mobilize resources to intimidate the people says volumes, knowing who among the candidates has such dubious credentials.

What seems clear is that President Buhari will not allow himself to be intimidated twice, not when he is still licking the wounds of the first one. Above all, the President’s enduring legacy after eight years will come through how he finishes his race. Trophies are for finishers, not good beginners or dropouts and the president is aware, hence his unapologetic stance to let the will of the people prevail. After all, the strongest intimidation comes from the man who invents God’s wrath as a consequence of wrongs done. God will not help him realize his dream if he means ill for our dear country and democracy. Tinubu is driven by sheer vaulting ambition because truth remains that it’s not even his turn really if it’s turn by turn. God help us.

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