New Telegraph

Delta Guber: The zoning conundrum

  • Battle for Okowa’s successor and zoning conundrum

 

The quest for a successor to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State is generating controversies, particularly with doubts as to the existence or otherwise of a power-sharing agreement in the state. ONWUKA NZESHI reports

 

As the 2023 general election beckons, politicians across Nigeria are gearing up for the preliminary contests called party primaries. This is the stage where some statutory delegates are selected and others elected to then elect those who would be on the ballot at the main election.

 

The various political parties have set out their criterion for the primaries in line with the general guidelines published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Right now, political parties are engaged in the sale of Expression of Interest and Nomination forms to aspirants for the various elective offices. Beyond these formal activities, many politicians are working surreptitiously through various channels and platforms to influence the delegates in choosing the candidates of the political parties.

 

There is also a multiplicity of pressure groups drumming support for their preferred candidates ahead of the primaries. Power rotation In lobbying for their choice candidates, groups and community based associations usually advance reasons for canvassing support for a particular candidate. Ideally, qualification, competence, capacity and cognate experience of a candidate should be the overriding considerations.

 

But in Nigeria, where identity politics is still the order of the day, the most common factors that determine support for a candidate are: Where does he come from? Who are his godfathers? How deep is his pocket? This brand of politics often triggers debates about zoning, power shift and power rotation. Although so much emphasis has been placed on the presidential election, the tussle for the governorship ticket is generating a lot of controversies in many states.

 

 

In Delta State, the struggle is about who takes over from Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, when he completes his second and final term next year.

 

Ordinarily, the task of finding a worthy successor would not have been difficult given the array of competent and experienced politicians abound in the state. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been in power in Delta State since 1999 and has produced three governors and a host of high calibre political appointees.

 

All past governors served out their legitimate tenures and Okowa is about to do same. This success story is a clear testimony to  the stability within the PDP and which has enabled the party maintain its dominance of the political space.

 

But, like every good thing, it did not come easy. It has been a journey of internal squabbles and fierce electoral battles with the other political parties.

 

The party could be said to have been lucky to have retained the support of the electorate, backed by the various ethnic nationalities across the three senatorial zones of the state. Ethno-zonal configuration In Delta North Senatorial District, there are three distinct groups; namely the Ukwuani, Ika and Aniocha.

 

They make up what is referred to as the Anioma political bloc. In the Central Senatorial District are the Urhobo ethnic group made up of sub-groups such as Okpe, Agbara, Olomu, Ughievmwen and Udu, among others. Each of these groups exists as a semi-autonomous entity, but belongs to the larger Urhobo political bloc. The Southern Senatorial District is also occupied by three distinct groups; namely Isoko, Ijaw and Itsekiri.

 

These are people who speak three different languages hence they are not as homogenous as the other zones. Initially, the multi-ethnic configuration of the state appeared like an obstacle to a harmonious and peaceful coexistence.

 

However, that fear and mutual suspicion soon gave way to a better understanding and appreciation of one another’s place in the political equation of the state. Power rotation

 

At the beginning of the current political dispensation in 1999, the Central Senatorial District was the first to grab political power. It produced the governor of the state in the person of Chief James Ibori, who served two terms of four years each. Towards the middle of his second tenure, there was a heated debate about who should succeed him.

 

Since there was no prior power sharing agreement and his zone appeared poised to rule in perpetuity, politicians from the other zones began to clamour for power shift. The agitation was intense from every side as eligible candidates sprang up from the three senatorial districts and across party lines. During this period, various pressure groups emerged across the state to advance the idea of power rotation or none of it.

 

This was the era of the Core Group, which wanted the Central Senatorial District to retain the governorship seat based on the presumed majority population the zone claimed to have over other zones. But there was also the Equity Group in the Northern Senatorial District which campaigned vigorously for a power shift.

 

The political elite in the area could not accept the claim that a zone made up of eight local government areas could be more populous than one that is  made up of nine. It was at the end of that struggle that Delta Central conceded the governorship ticket of the PDP to Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, an Itsekiri from Delta South Senatorial District. Uduaghan governed for eight years and enjoyed popular support from all parts of the state.

 

However, the power shift controversy reared its head again towards the end of his tenure in 2015. Ordinarily, there should have been no argument again about which district should take over at the end of Uduaghan’s tenure because two out of three districts had governed the state successfully.

 

But politicians, being who they are chose to reenact the same fierce battle for power witnessed in 2007.

 

They turned a blind eye to a supposed gentleman’s agreement to cede power to the Northern Senatorial District after the Central and South have had their turns. In this clime, politics is perceived as a brutal contest for power and survival of the fittest.

 

They believe in the theory that power is taken, not given and you don’t get it without a fight. Suffice it to say that power had to shift to the Northern Senatorial District, not on a platter of gold but through a fierce contest by the political gladiators. Those who fought the  battle felt they needed to prove a point about equity, justice and fairness in the politics of the state. The crossroads Now, the state is at the crossroads again as Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, an Ika man prepares to vacate office. As usual, the politicians are up in arms against one another and the zoning battle has resonated again. If politics were simple Arithmetic, the power pendulum should have simply shifted to the Central Zone, where it all started from in 1999. The hand of the clock had gone full cycle and should have continued the journey from where it originally began.

 

Probably, when it gets there, the various groups within Urhobo land will slug it out and ensure that the selection process does not just produce the best candidate but follows an internal power rotation formula that leaves no sub-group in the zone marginalised.

 

About two years into Okowa’s second tenure, the political elite in Delta Central launched a special lobby group, Delta Central 2023 (DC23) to pave the way for power to return to the zone.

 

The DC23, under the leadership of the ever boisterous Chief Ighoyota Amori, did an elaborate spade work on the project and ended up with a shortlist of some aspirants they considered as possible candidates for the governorship election.

 

In fact, the effort threw up Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi, Olorogun David Edevbie and Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori, the current Speaker, Delta State House of Assembly. As if that was not enough, the Urhobo Progress Union (UPU), the dominant socio-cultural group in the zone, has gone ahead to anoint Edevbie as its choice nominee.

 

However, these moves have not gone without criticisms from different quarters, even among the Urhobo people and members of the PDP across the state. The Ijaw agenda Politics in Delta State is much like a quadratic or simultaneous equation, where there are unknown variables that must be factored in if one wants to resolve the problem. So, while the political elite in the Central Zone had taken it for granted that they will produce Okowa’s successor, the Ijaw ethnic group in Delta South Senatorial District had a different agenda. In fact, they are laying claim to the same crown as their compatriots in Delta Central. The Ijaw agenda, some analysts believe, is propelled by the argument that the power rotation formula would be better for them if taken on the basis of ethnicity rather than zonal identity. In the current contest, the Ijaw elite believe that one of their own, Kingsley Otuaro, who is the current deputy governor, should step into the shoes of his boss. Some say this is a good argument considering the experience Otuaro must have garnered in office over the last seven years and the need for continuity of policies and programmes of the current administration. But the Ijaw ethnic group is not done yet with their campaign for power. There is also, Senator James Manager, another Ijaw, who was the pioneer chairman of the PDP in the state. Manager was the Commissioner for Works during Ibori’s first term and has been representing Delta South Senatorial District at the National Assembly since 2003.

 

He comes with a wealth of experience and probably, a sense of entitlement to the governorship ticket of his party. It must be conceded that under the 1999 Constitution, every Nigerian who meets the age criteria and other basic conditions stipulated in the Electoral Act is eligible to vie for the Office of a Governor of a State. It does not really matter which zone he or she hails from or what language he or she speaks.

 

But the truth remains that the power rotation principle has found its way into the constitution of some political parties, including the PDP and can no longer be waved aside. However, it appears that the Ijaw bid for the government house, Asaba, is a solo effort as neither the Itsekiri nor the Isoko compatriots from the same zone seem to be supporting it.

 

These two ethnic groups just like their counterparts in Delta North seem to have bought the idea that it is the turn of Delta Central. It is not yet clear where the Ijaw ethnic group is getting their inspiration from but many believe that it is coming from the body language of Governor Okowa.

 

The Ibori/Okowa tango Although Okowa has repeatedly declared that his successor will emerge by divine providence, the power shift imbroglio has pitched him against his former boss and ex-governor, Ibori, who is solidly backing the Urhobo bid for the top job. Okowa is too smart to be indifferent about who succeeds him hence he has come under intense pressure to declare his stand on the matter.

 

There are reports that Ibori, who is widely accepted as the godfather of the PDP in the state is fully backing Edevbie for the job. On the other hand, Okowa who wants to be seen as neutral in the game is believed to be subtly supporting his deputy, Otuaro, for the same job. As an elder in the game, Ibori is said to have made several entreaties to Okowa, persuading him to lay all the cards on the table for a fair and friendly game.

 

But, so far, the governor has kept his joker close to his chest. As it stands, the political elite in the state appear divided between advocates of a smooth power shift and those who want it disrupted. It is becoming a tussle between those insisting that Delta Central be allowed to pick the governorship ticket unchallenged and those kicking against it.

 

Somewhere in between, it seems every group supports power shift if only the next round begins with them. Ayu’s intervention Perhaps, it was part of the issues that took the National Chairman of the PDP, Dr. Iyorcha Ayu to Asaba, recently. During the visit, Ayu joined Okowa and members of his cabinet to commission some road and drainage projects in the state capital.

 

The PDP boss also held private meetings with Okowa and other leaders of the party in the state during which he tried to broker peace. As expected, Ayu left them with some words of advice that should help douse the tension, disagreements and discontentment in the party.

 

He charged them to close ranks and avoid a situation where they fight themselves to the finish before the election and become divided, too weak and highly vulnerable to face the real battle.

 

While Ayu commended leaders of the PDP in the state for holding on firmly for nearly 24 years, he warned that they must unite and work with one accord as anything short of that could break the party’s winning streak and pave way for the opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC), to take over the state.

 

At the moment, the surest way forward is for the party leaders and key stakeholders to converge at a round table to iron out their differences. They should hold a frank dialogue on the best power rotation formula to be adopted in Delta State.

 

Should it be on the basis of the three senatorial zones or on the basis of ethnic nationalities? This is the crux of the matter and the root of the quagmire the state finds itself every election cycle.

 

In order to be on the safer side, let the resolutions be documented and signed by the political leaders for posterity. When that is done, every group or zone could predict with near certainty when it would be its turn to mount the saddle. Then, there would be no more tension and unnecessary dissipation of energy when power is about to change hands.

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