Ahead of tomorrow’s byelections in Lagos State, the two leading parties in the polls, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are familiar foes aiming to bloody the nose of each other once again. WALE ELEGBEDE reports
No fewer than 1.1 million voters in the Lagos East Senatorial District are expected to troop out tomorrow to elect their representatives in the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly and the Kosofe II State Constituency.
Lagos East is one of the senatorial districts in the Red Chamber without any representative in the last few months due to resignation, death of elected members of the Senate or the inability of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a by- election after some seats were declared vacant as a result of political developments. The Lagos East Senatorial District seat in the Senate became vacant on June 15 following the death of Senator Bayo Osinowo, who represented the senatorial district from June 2019 till he kicked the bucket.
He died in Lagos on June 15 due to COVID-19 complications at 64 and was buried in his home town in Ijebu, Ogun State the same day. Unfortunately, Tunde Braimoh, the lawmaker who represents Kosofe II, and an ally of Osinowo, died just after one month of his constituents, thereby throwing vacant the state constituency seat. Interestingly, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will also hold by-elections in some other six states.
The by-elections are expected to also take place in Bayelsa Central, Bayelsa West, Imo North, Cross River North and Plateau South senatorial districts. Others are Nganzai State Constituency Borno; Bayo State Constituency Borno; Obudu State Constituency, Cross River State, Bakura State Constituency, Zamfara State and Ibaji State Constituency, Kogi State. Although initially fixed for October 31, the #EndSARS protests forced a 35-day shift from the original date to December 5.
The elections
According to INEC, 1,168,790 voters will be participating in the elections. The Resident Electoral Commissioner of INEC, Sam Olumekun, said that the voters are those who possess Permanent Voter Cards (PVC) in the senatorial district.
The INEC chief, however, said that the district has 1,343,448 registered voters spread across 71 wards, 1,928 polling units and 188 voting points. Olumekun added that 280,363 registered voters from Kosofe State Constituency II would participate in the Lagos State House of Assembly’s bye-election, holding the same day. According to him, not all the registered voters are in possession of PVCs to participate in the elections.
The INEC boss said the registered voters in the Lagos East Senatorial District spread across the five local gov-ernment areas comprising Somolu, Kosofe, Ibeju-Lekki, Ikorodu and Epe. He said the registered voters for the Kosofe Constituency II bye-election were spread across the six wards located in Ketu-Alapere, Ikosi/Ketu, Isheri/Olowo-Ora, Agboyi I, Agboyi II and Odo-Ogun/Ajegunle.
The candidates
Candidates from 12 political parties will be contesting in the forthcoming Lagos East Senatorial bye-election. Eight candidates from various political parties will also be contesting the Kosofe Constituency II, Lagos State House of Assembly bye-election.
The contestants for the senatorial election are Muyiwa Adebanjo, Action Alliance (AA); Ms Mercy Adeoye, African Action Congress (AAC) and John Kome, African Democratic Congress (ADC). Others are Adebowale Ogunlaru, Action Democratic Party (ADP); Adetokunbo Abiru, All Progressives Congress (APC); Olusola Babatope, Allied Peoples Movement (APM); Mrs Florence Trautman, Labour Party (LP) and Ms Adijat Lawal, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
The rest are Babatunde Gbadamosi, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Olakunle Adisa, National Rescue Movement (NRM); Saheed Aluko, Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Taiwo Temitope, Young Progressive Party (YPP). The eight contestants for the Kosofe Constituency II bye-election are John Akerele, AA; Sadiq Olawale, AAC; Wasiu Saheed, APC; Adekunle Oladapo, LP; Muyideen Agoro, NNPP; Ademorin Adelaja, NRM; Sikiru Alebiosu, PDP and Mrs Mary Abojeh, ADC.
Factors that will shape the election
Irrespective of the public posture by the parties and their candidates, political observers believe that the contest will majorly be defined by some factors which include party structure, power of incumbency, state might, deep pocket and of course the recent EndSARS protests that nearly brought the state to its knees. Presently in Lagos, only APC and PDP have viable structures in all the nooks and crannies of the state and the two parties are expected to flex their muscles in the by-election, considering the political structure and personalities in the two dominant parties in the state.
However, if the present state of the two parties is anything to be put into consideration, the APC has more visible and viable structures in Lagos East Senatorial District than the PDP and other parties in the state, considering that the ruling party swept all the seats contested for in the last general elections.
The PDP has never won a senatorial seat election in the state since 1999. The stronghold of APC in Lagos politics, notwithstanding, some political analysts are of the view that PDP could capitalise on the recent upheavals in the state that manifested through the EndSARS protests.
The late Senator Osinowo, popularly known as ‘Pepperito’ has a formidable political structure, not only in Lagos East but also across the other two senatorial districts of the state as one of Tinubu’s loyalists and trusted allies. So, APC will be going into the poll with power of incumbency since the party is the ruling party at the local government, state and national levels.
While party structure is very crucial in every election, both APC and PDP cannot claim to be totally united, as there are some traces of disunity within the two. The parties are divided along political groups and factions, which might likely affect their chances if necessary steps are not taken by their respective leaders to put their houses in order before the poll.
The issue of zoning may also determine the outcome of the byelection, as politicians in the five local governments that make up Lagos East are doing everything possible to ensure that they outsmart one another in producing Osinowo’s successor. Also, how formidably organised and strategic the parties stand will also be a big factor in the election. Of course, the influence of finance as a catalyst for victory at the polls cannot be underestimated.
Abiru vs Gbadamosi
Aside from their engagements on campaign grounds, both Abiru and Gbadamosi, as well as their parties, have been engaging each other in the court premises. Gbadamosi had in a suit, through his counsel, Ebun-Olu Adegboruwa (SAN), sought an order of the Federal High Court in Lagos, disqualifying the candidate of the APC, Abiru, from participating in the election over alleged possession of double voter cards. On its part, the APC and Abiru, in turn, filed a suit, seeking Gbadamosi’s disqualification on the grounds of alleged forgery of WAEC certificate.
In another legal tussle, Gbadamosi, in a pre-action letter demanded N1 billion as compensation from the spokesman for the APC in Lagos, Seye Oladejo, over alleged defamation. Gbadamosi claimed that the APC spokesman defamed him by claiming that he (Gbadamosi) forged the certificate of the West African Examination Council, submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission.
The PDP candidate contended that the forgery claim against him by Oladejo, which was widely reported in the media, both online and in print, was a calculated attempt to diminish his chances in the forthcoming bye-election.
Earlier, Abiru had dragged the Media Director of the Babatunde Gbadamosi Senatorial Election Campaign Council, Dr Adetokunbo Pearse before an Ikeja High Court for alleged defamation of character. In a suit filed by his counsel, Mr Kemi Pinheiro, Abiru alleged that Pearse made several defamatory remarks against his person in widely spread publications.
Tinubu vs Bode George
However, the two gladiators who have scores to settle in tomorrow’s election might not even be the candidates, but their perceived godfathers and it will be foolhardy to discount their impact in the election.
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the side of the APC and Chief Olabode George in the camp of the PDP is a likely fitted rivalry that has existed for over 20 years and still counting. George has been at the rooftops lately to call out Tinubu and his inferred role in the EndSARS crisis in the state and that has situated the former governor at the butt of attacks. In fact, PDP will be hoping that voters transfer their anger over the Lekki Tollgate killings to reject APC at the polls in December.
On the other hand, few days after the October 20 Lekki Toll Gate incident, Tinubu during a visit to the state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, came out full of life and affirmed his leadership, stating, “I am still the Jagaban.” Head or tail, tomorrow’s polls will either rubberstamp Bola Tinubu’s status as the godfather of Lagos politics or guarantee Bode George’s long-nursed hunger to ease out his longtime political nemesis? Time will tell where the coin will spin.