“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind” – Edward Weyer Jr
ine days into 2020, it’s still very fresh to release predictions for the New Year. This prediction is purely political not religious, it’s just the normal prognostications in politics. Prophetic predictions have lost its value in our clime and nobody looks up to New Year predictions any longer because of perceived mercantile undertone.
For instance, one of the curious predictions in 2020, is the one declaring Senator Hope Uzodinma the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate in the last general election in Imo State a ‘governor-elect’ by fiery Catholic Priest, Rev Fr. Ejike Mbaka. You may wish to know that Uzodinma’s APC came fourth in the election as Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Action Alliance (AA), and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in this order came before his party yet sweltering Mbaka says he would be governor in Imo in 2020. With predictions like this, why won’t forecasting lose its value here?
But the predictions we offer here is not prophetic but political and is based on empirical facts of things at the moment. No projections we make here will come due to ‘holy spirit’ descending but rather after due and realistic consideration of issues on ground.
Our first prediction in 2020 is that President Muhammadu Buhari will still remain the President of Nigeria. If you think otherwise say how yours would happen. Many Nigerians would have wished otherwise but sorry this is not about wishful thinking but reality on ground. Even the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osibanjo will still be on his seat in 2020. His traducers will wish him away but for want of number to execute that they will grudgingly tolerate him. His duties will be limited to functions where speeches are required as a lot of his schedule have been taken away in 2019. Don’t ask me his offense but it’s not unconnected with the August 2018 incidence.
In 2020, the almighty cabals will be stronger and more fortified but would be divided over support for the generous South-West strongman Bola Tinubu and Northern interests ahead of 2023. This year also, the First Lady, Aisha Buhari, the loquacious owner of the other rooms in Aso Villa who is momentarily quiet after her last television outburst may detonate again in 2020 if the terms of agreement for her to keep mum is breached. In 2020 she is likely to chase away the remaining squatters in the Villa.
This year also, Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el rufai may clash publicly with the cabals over his Presidential ambition that is not enjoying the support of most of them. In 2020 what will dominate political conversations will be 2023 Presidency location, whether North or South. Nigeria President of Igbo extraction will be a recurring topic even as opposition against it from the North would grow higher because of Igbo phobia.
This year also, the fate of the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Ibrahim Magu will be determined one way or the other. Either he gets dropped or his acting status is dropped in 2020. Already the lobby for and against his continuing is intensifying.
In 2020 the turmoil immersing the ruling APC will not end this year, rather it would magnify and exasperate. Tinubu group in the party who are solidly behind the embattled National Chairman Adams Oshoimhole may have to decide whether to let Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State get his second term ticket for Edo governorship election or keep fighting and dam the consequences which might mean losing the chairmanship seat. The Tinubu boys are looking at the bigger picture of having Oshoimhole survive for their Presidential aspiration. It’s also for the same reason perhaps that the anti-Oshiohmole group led by Kaduna and Ekiti state governors are not relenting in their hatchet to push him aside.
In the main opposition party, the PDP, Prince Uche Secondus reform would have to get to the next level ahead of 2023.
This would need to happen before Prince Secondus can enter the next phase of his reform for the opposition party. Carrying a wage bill of 16 years as a ruling party for five years in opposition has been hectic and unrealistic.
In Kano 2020 is going to be turbulent. Governor Umar Ganduje and Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi will declare their final position one way or the other. One of them may give way for peace to reign and this will happen in 2020 if the fragile General Abdulslami Abubakar-led peace committee fails.
In Lagos, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu says God is the sole administrator of state, some watchers have mistaken what he said to be the big G god when he actually meant the small god, the political owner of Lagos. In 2020 there will be enormous pressure from Lagos residents for the governor to extricate himself from the small god to be able to deliver in governance but he will ignore them knowing that Lagosians can’t give ticket, they only give votes to whom the small god chooses and without ticket where are the votes. No reasonable politician desires an Ambode treatment in his career.
In Edo State, Oshoimhole and Obaseki will have to declare a victor and a vanquished in their war this year and it looks like Oshoimhole may be vanquished unless he toes the line of the APC powerful cartel called Progressive Governors Forum.
In 2020 in Rivers State, Mr. Project, Governor Neysom Wike will remain solidly in charge but will begin to feel the heat of succession fire that guts the state every eight years since 2007.
In Bayelsa State in this 2020, residents will be wondering what is happening to governance in their state. The man the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared winner last November APC’s Lyon may realise this year that governance and politics are polls apart even though they co-habit in the polity.
Ditto the tatatata governor of Kogi State Yahaya Bello who will spend most of 2020 struggling to escape the court hammer over his curious November mandate.
In Ebonyi state, Governor Dave Umahi who is curiously enjoying membership of two main political parties, will chose one in 2020. He is most likely not to choose APC because it would be clear to him this year that the Presidential ticket that is making him romance with APC is not available. Fulani’s don’t give power if it’s in their custody and Umahi will realise this in 2020.
In 2020 also Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi would be torn between his Nsukka people saying he has not done enough for the zone to cover what the other two zones did for themselves when they held sway and neglected Nsukka and the cry from the other zones that the governor is taking everything to his people. Only a Gburugburu can wriggle out of such political quagmire.
In Imo State this year, Governor Emeka Ihedioha will continue the task of clearing Rochas’ mess including the sculptures but will face the heat of the impatient Imolites who would want more action in addition.
In Ekiti, Governor Kayode Fayemi’s Presidential/Vice Presidential ambition will begin to take its toll on governance in the state and the people will grumble.
In Anambra State in this 2020 various aspirants for the 2021 governorship election in the state will be chasing the former governor Peter Obi for endorsement after he used the 2019 to confirm his electoral superiority. He is still indisputably the most outstanding and most credible politician from that state today. Governor Obiano and his wife may also settle the power sharing struggle as they enter their last year in office.
In Kwara State in 2020, the obviously vindictive Governor Abdulrahaman Abdulrazaq will force divided Saraki nuclear family to unite against him to prove that Otoge should not be against Oloye.
If you did not see some states mentioned in this extrapolations, it’s likely because my clairvoyant torch did not reach there for 2020, it however does not mean that there will be no political activities in those states in 2020.
Please note this caveat, that what you read here is purely political prediction, they are not sacrosanct because a lot of political events in this country are so unexpected that nobody prepares for it. Who knows what IPOB, herdsmen or Boko Haram have off their sleeves. Happy New Year.