As analysts anticipate the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) tomorrow, Access Bank’s Economic Intelligence Unit has forecast that headline inflation for September 2020 will rise to 13.63 per cent from 13.22 per cent recorded in August 2020. In a note obtained by New Telegraph yesterday, the Intelligence Unit said that the expected increase, which will mark the 13th consecutive month of ascending inflation, reflected the economic backlash from the ongoing pandemic. “Transportation and food prices rose mirroring the rise in energy prices and instability in the economy.
Given this pattern, we expect the CPI to settle at 339.3 points from 334.6 in the preceding month,” it added. Specifically, the unit said: “Upsurge in transportation cost, fuel prices and electricity tariffs played a major role in the price rise for the month, grappled with the friction in food supply shortages owing to the residual effects of the Covid-19.
“Prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages, the largest component in the consumption basket (with a weight of 51.8%) majorly retained an upward trend Household food items and increment rate in September were but not limited to; tomatoes (16.7% – 21%), onions (7.9%), chicken (7.7%), vegetable oil (12.7%) and cosmetics.”
It will be recalled that in his “Lagos Business School (LBS) Executive Breakfast Session,” presentation for October 2020, the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane, predicted that inflation would maintain its upward trajectory and increase to 14 per cent for the month of September, from the 13.22 per cent recorded in August.
In fact, he said he also expected inflation to further rise to 15 per cent in October, adding that “inflation in 2020 could rise beyond the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) 14.5 per cent projection.”