The expected recovery of Nigeria and other sub-Sahara African (SSA) economies this year could be determined by how much of Covid-19 vaccines they are able to acquire to comply with the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) requirement of a minimum 70 per cent population vaccination, United Capital Plc has said.
The firm, which stated this in a commentary on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO), also cited high debt and “legacy economic challenges,” as other issues that might affect the recovery of SSA economies.
It stated: “The Interna-tional Monetary Fund’s (IMF) in its most recently released 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO), forecast growth for sub- Saharan Africa will print at 3.2 per cent in 2021 trailing global growth forecast of 5.5 per cent. “According to the report, developing economies (where most SSA economies are classified) prospects are weaker than global average largely because of oil-exporting economies and tourism-based economies who are vulnerable to slow normalization of cross-border travel and subdued outlook for oil prices. Also, it expects the fallout of the crisis to push close to 90 million people into extreme poverty.
“For us, the IMF’s gloomy growth prospects for SSA economies were largely expected, and in line with our SSA economies’ outlook. In our opinion, inability to secure adequate vaccines to meet up with the minimum 70 per cent population vaccination, limited wriggle room for policy decisions, elevated debt levels, and legacy economic challenges are key issues that we expect will drag SSA recovery in 2021.” The firm further stated that while it largely agrees with the IMF’s view that a lot of the recovery potential for SSA was hinged on vaccination levels, implementing appropriate policy responses and resolving longstanding economic bottlenecks is critical for long term economic sustainability.
