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Citing improved prospects for oil prices, the World Bank has raised Nigeria’s 2022 growth forecast by 0.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent from the 2.1 per cent it projected for the country in June last year.
The Bank, which stated this in its latest Global Economic Prospects report released yesterday, also revised its growth forecast for the country next year upwards to 2.8 per cent from the 2.4 per cent that it predicted in June.
In the same vein, the Bretton Woods institution raised its 2022 growth forecast for Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) to 3.6 per cent from the 3.3per cent it forecast in June.
However, citing the resurgence of COVID-19, diminished policy support and lingering supply-chain bottlenecks, the World Bank cut its 2022 global growth fore cast to 4.1per cent from the 4.3 per cent it predicted in June. It stated: “The pace of global economic recovery is expected to slow in the near term as recurring pandemic waves disrupt domestic activity, supply bottlenecks continue, and policy support is gradually withdrawn.
“At the same time, the recent emergence of the Omicron variant underscores how the further spread of COVID- 19 and continued uneven access to vaccines could contribute to more persistence in the economic damage from the pandemic.
“The recovery is also at risk from more persistent supply disruptions, mounting inflationary pressures, financial stresses, climate-related disasters, and weaker-than anticipated long-term growth drivers.”
Although it upgraded the forecast for Sub Saharan Africa, the Bank said that with their high vaccination rates and sizable fiscal support, advanced economies are performing much better than emerging nations which are grappling with waning policy support and a tightening of financing conditions.
It stated that debt levels in emerging market and developing economies had risen at the fastest pace in three decades, adding that “it is likely that further debt relief will be needed if growth remains subdued and the global community will need to stand ready to provide this in an equitable but efficient way.”
The Bank predicted that in 2023, emerging and developing nations are expected to suffer “substantial scarring,” with aggregate output likely to be at 4per cent below its prepandemic trend.
Furthermore, it forecast that in fragile and conflict-affected emerging and developing countries, outputnextyear willbeatsevenpercent below pre-virus trends “as they face heightened uncertainty, security challenges, weak investment prospects, and anemic vaccination progress.”
Specifically, the bank said: “Deteriorating security conditions in Afghanistan, for instance, could generate instability in nearby countries, while conflict and violence in several countries in SSA (for example, Ethiopia, Mali, Nigeria, and Sudan) could escalate.”