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WTO revises forecast for goods to 9.2% decline in 2020

The World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its forecast for trade in goods this year to a level still comparable to the decline during the global financial crisis, but better than initially predicted due to a rebound in June and July.

The WTO said on Tuesday that global merchandise trade would fall by 9.2% this year and then increase by 7.2 per cent in 2021.

 

The WTO forecast in April that merchandise trade would decline by between 13 and 32 per cent this year, figures described by the WTO chief as “ugly,” before rebounding by between 21 and 24 per cent in 2021 if countries worked together.

 

The Geneva-based trade body said that its estimates were subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to the evolution of the pandemic and government responses and noted that next year’s pick-up would leave trade well below its pre-pandemic tren

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